"The weatherman is always wrong." I chuckled when I heard that from the cab driver yesterday talking about the pending snowstorm. It was a beautiful day in Halifax, sunny and fairly warm, how could they be forecasting 15-20 cm of snow? That was the logic.
When I was learning the ropes as a meteorologist one instructor told me how to handle this accusation, "the weatherman is always wrong." He said to say, "thank you" because if we were always wrong then all you do is expect the opposite. Sun from the weatherman would mean cloud because we are always wrong.
The cab driver reacted just like people would react to a question on global warming when it's minus 40 C and blowing a gale.
The thing is, the weatherman is more precise than most would admit, including pilots.
We can fly to Hong Kong direct from Toronto and predict a fuel burn to within 100 kg because of the accurate forecast of winds aloft. Pilots don't know what to say when they see how close the flight plan winds are compared to the wind readout in the flight deck.
Here ends my rant.
I'm now stuck in Halifax waiting for the airport to open. Everyone is looking for answers from the agents and they just regurgitate what "operations" are telling them. We were sked out at 6:45 a.m and it's now 9:30. Realistically it will be 10:45 a.m.
They plowed runway 05-23 but the glitch is the winds are from the north at 15 to 25 knots with a CRFI (Canadian Runway Friction Index) of .22 (poor braking). We won't get airborne until they open runway 14-32.
The first officer just received the revised flight plan. Time to go to work.
Captain Doug
****Update: We got airborne around 1:00 p.m. About six hours late. ********
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18 comments:
1500 Zulu:
CYHZ 171500Z 33021G27KT 4SM -SN DRSN OVC008 M01/M03 A2887 REBLSN
Those sectors out east don't sound like fun in mid Feb....
Cabin Day 2 finished - just about - tea break.
Medical to come, sims to come then bed.
Geeze.
Ian
The weather forecasters are usually right, but only when you look at a large enough area. If they forecast intermittent rain showers (for example), and it's sunny all day in my back yard, I need only go up in my Warrior to see the the showers in the distance over other people's back yards.
David. I agree, I think they are spot on in large scale forecasting. Large scale meteorology is "synoptic scale" which covers hundreds of miles.
When I teach "local" meteorology in my weather classes I give the students this scenario (forecast). And you've heard it many times before.
"Sunny in the morning with afternoon clouds with a few showers developing with a chance of a late afternoon thunderstorm."
To the layman, they would think the weatherman has his derriere covered. He/she mentions sun, cloud, rain with even a thunderbumper thrown in for good measure. CYA (Cover your as......)
But this is the nature of convective (local) weather. How many times have I heard Joe Public say. "What a weird day. One minute it's sunny and the next it's cloudy with light showers."
That's what makes forecasting interesting. But what makes it even more unique is trying to convey this to the meteorologically challenged public.
Thanks for the post.
Metman Morris
Ian, after a six hour delay we finally made it to Toronto. For some reason things went off the rails a little more than usual. The Halifax airport authority will not allow Air Canada to operate any snow removing equipment. So we are at their mercy.
It didn't look good when our competition was taxiing an hour or so sooner than us as we repositioned airplanes from a snow covered gate to freshly plowed gate. It didn't have to be this way. But it's hard to sit and watch this transpire as we pilots are very analytical and query why things are done the way they are done.
hello doug
Sounds like quite the day.
Following the advice of management . and I use the world loosely, my blog because of its political content has had to be removed.
For now, you are having to take the baton in blogging. I will email you and let you know the scoop.
I believe they cant muzzle me completely - but you'll see the blog is almost gone!
The joys.
Hope all well.
Ian
Ian. Just took a look at your blog. Your wings have been clipped - for now! Funny, we supposedly live in a land with freedom of speech as a crux of society. But I'm wise enough to realize people are extremely sensitive or at least they make themselves out to be.
I was asked to write a monthly column in a popular aviation magazine here in Canada, but denied it because I knew I would eventually get political and many would take offense to it.
I gave it a miss.
All you need is a new flight plan and to keep the ship "straight and level."
Captain Doug
I really enjoy reading your blog. It's been my experience that a lot of accusations of the weather forecast being wrong are because the person hearing/reading it got it wrong. The National Weather Service might say, for example, "80% chance of snow, daytime accumulations 1-3 inches." I get to work, and invariably someone will look out the window and say "I didn't think we were supposed to get any snow today! Those forecasters really got it wrong this time." I wonder where these people are getting their forecast. I think they get the same one as I do, but they aren't paying much attention.
Anon. You pegged it! I remember driving home after a shift at the forecast center and I turned on the radio. I mentioned a chance of an afternoon shower the next day but the radio announcer read it as, "rain tomorrow." That's where the weak link is between the forecast and the user, dissemination. I would love to sit down with a naysayer and show them just how right the weatherman is.
Look at all the websites competing for aviation weather. There's too much Hollywood effect. Also look at all the TV and radio stations competing for ratings. Usually they try to woo the public by claiming they have the best weather forecasts. Ironically, most forecast come from the same source - at least that's the case here in Canada.
A weatherman shares the same popularity as the Canadian postal system once did, a dentist, or the taxman. That's probably one of the reasons why I left.
That's for the positive feedback on my blog.
Captain Doug
The other problem is that people don't keep tracking the weather: they read the five-day forecast on Monday and don't check in again, then complain when Friday isn't as forecast. A five-day forecast has barely 50% certainty, if I recall correctly what I've read at Environment Canada.
Salut Doug,
During your trip CYHZ-CYYZ, I would like to know if you we're in communication with the tower (CYYZ) because I listen often the communication by internet. I hope to ear your voice one day to match it with four face.
I like your blog and your book!!!
Nadia
Quebec city
(sorry for my english ,I usually speak french)
David. Excellent point. Plus they frequently get the forecast from second hand information. Doug
Bonjour Nadia. Comment allez-vous?
When we left Halifax it was my turn to fly. The First officer was the PNF (pilot non flying) so he worked the radios.
We indeed talked to Toronto tower but again it was the F/O. I had to concentrate on a crosswind landing. It all worked out nicely.
Merci pour le courriel.
Doug
Nadia: if Doug is flying frequently between Toronto and Halifax, you can listen to him and his colleagues live as they pass Quebec City (either a bit to the south, or directly overhead) -- just buy a cheap radio scanner that supports aviation frequencies (Radio Shack/The Source?).
Try listening on 135.025 MHz, or perhaps on some of the other frequencies listed in the Montreal ACC Wikipedia article. You probably won't hear the air traffic controllers' side of the conversations, but you should have a clear line of sight to the planes in the air.
Thanks David for the added info. You know your stuff.
Nadia. My link to the YYZ tower is just one of the many frequencies you can listen to from this website:
http://www.liveatc.net/search/?icao=cyyz
Doug
Bonjour Doug,
Thanks for your french.
I was a bit disappointed it was'nt you cause the guy as a beautiful voice.
I like when you say your start and arrival destination. Because with that, I can go on flightaware to see your flight number. And then switch to liveatc.net to see the archive and listen the communication.
Every day, I'm listening the Montreal communication but seem to be feed down for long time.
David: thank you for your help. I will try the frequencies with my scanner(I have a scanner because it's a very helpfull tool for a plane spotter with my camera of course)
Good night
Nadia
Quebec City
Bon matin, Nadia. Maybe I will post my flight number (sometimes). So you are a "tail spotter?" Erik, who lives in Frankfurt working Air Canada cargo, is a very serious "tail spotter." He has thousands of pictures and travels to get great photos.I use some of his photos on my blog.
This morning I'm going to the CDF (Central Deice Facility) here in Toronto to show some Brampton Flight Centre student pilots this high tech place.
À la prochaine
Bonjour Doug,
I'm doing some plane spotting to try to had more immatriculation as possible. I have 86 differents of Air Canada and 68 of Air Canada Jazz. I am a dash-8 fan because here in Quebec City (CYQB) it's the most popular plane.
I went to montreal (CYUL) twice a year to practice my hobby.
Take care et bonne journée
Nadia (CYQB)
Bonjour Nadia. Sounds like you are building quite a repertoire of "registrations." We used to fly the A320 into La Ville de Québec but now Jazz services the route. I guess some Embraers go there as well? Doug
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